September is here, and with it hope that the Brewers can turn in another come-from-behind last month to make the postseason.
The bats have obviously been the major issue with the team’s performance this year, but without outside help coming in via a trade there’s no easy internal solution to turning it around. The Brewers already lead the league in pinch hitters used per game this season, so it wouldn’t seem that it’s for a lack of trying in getting players into a position where they can be successful, or that Counsell can turn on a more ultra-aggressive brand of managing for the offense.
In 2018’s version of “Craigtember,” the bats went from a 97 wRC+ in April-August to 110 in September. That was largely on the back of an other-worldly 240 wRC+ from Christian Yelich, as well as the additions of Mike Moustakas and Curtis Granderson.
Yelich alone can’t turn around the offensive woes, so if the Brewers are hoping to make a run at the postseason or beyond, help will have to come from somewhere.
1. Record: 13-15
2. Player Performance of the Month
You’d be forgiven for not noticing Orlando Arcia’s slightly-below MLB average performance at the plate this season when the Brewers as a team have been 20% below average at the plate, good for 28th in baseball entering Monday’s games.
But among all Brewers who have had at least 50 plate appearances, Arcia is second only to Yelich on the team in terms of wRC+, and there’s reason to believe that something has clicked and may be sticking for his progress at the dish even before his game-winning RBI on Monday.
He’s in the top 10% of the league at avoiding striking out (12.9% while his career average has hovered around 20%), and is walking more than ever, too (10.8% of plate appearances). In August, he’s actually walked more than he has struck out, and that mostly seems tied to his ability to lay off pitches outside the zone to a greater degree than ever before.
After never having a season in which he swung at less than a third of pitches outside the zone, this season Arcia has swung at only 26% of those offerings so far in 2020. He’s not making great contact on pitches, but if the offense overall wasn’t so shoddy we’d make more of Arcia’s improvements this season. It will be interesting to see if he can replicate his defensive performance from 2018, when he recorded 12 outs above average at shortstop. There are signs that Arcia is putting it together, and if the 26-year old can continue that we may see a 2-win shortstop.
3. Minor Leaguer You May Have Missed: none
4. Pitch of the Month
It’s still Devin Williams’ all-world changeup, but notable this month has been Corbin Burnes’ slider. It’s always been his best pitch, as he got 58% swings and misses on it in 2019, but it’s become even more effective (63% whiff rate, .036 expected batting average against) this season for two primary reasons.
First, he’s added another inch and a half of break on the pitch while also adding another inch of “drop.” Those add up to heavier movement on the pitch, with both the horizontal and vertical movement being above average. It’s also likely generating more whiffs because batters can no longer just sit on his 4-seamer and hit a homer. In fact, Burnes has almost completely ditched the 4-seamer and instead is using a cutter and sinker as his primary fastballs:
Those fastballs haven’t exactly been lights out (.431 xwOBA on the sinker and .362 on the cutter), but they’ve been a great improvement over the 4-seamer last year (.460 xwOBA). Those new wrinkles may be making his slider that much more effective and are encouraging signs for the future if he can continue to mix in new pitches to go with the nasty slider.
5. Stat of the Month
Much has been made about Christian Yelich’s slow start, but in August (through Monday’s game) he had put up a 151 wRC+ for the month.
That mark would represent the 12th-best hitting month of his career, and that is with a .264 BABIP for the month. If he merely had his worst-season BABIP of his career thus far in the season (.336), it’s hard to imagine there being anything to complain about with his performance. One might consider worrying about the BABIP given his knee issue last season, but up to this point he’s still in the 77th percentile in all of MLB in sprint speed.
I have less concern about Christian Yelich than literally almost anything else in life.
6. A Uecker Gif to Close
Sausage Racing Form 